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The reason why China's urea has risen so much is largely due to the higher export profits. After all, the international urea has risen to a maximum of 6,000 yuan/ton. Many fertilizer companies have increased their export volume, resulting in less domestic urea supply, resulting in tight urea demand. Price increased.However, with the National Development and Reform Commission's many interviews and even filing a case for investigation, it severely cracked down on driving up fertilizer prices, causing the price of urea to begin to fall. In December, the urea market fell one after another, and the national average price dropped to 2400-2600 yuan/ton.But while my country's urea fell, the global urea rose one after another. What's going on? Blame China for fewer exports? 1. Global urea rises we all know, that natural gas and coal are the main raw materials for fertilizer production. However, in the whole year of 2021, the prices of natural gas and coal will rise sharply, which will increase the production cost of fertilizers. Many international manufacturers can only reduce the production scale or even stop production. This makes the international urea prices continue to rise, and many countries are deeply affected.For example, in Australia, due to China's low urea exports, many diesel engine vehicles in the country have been suspended from the road, and the freight supply chain may be broken in January next year. It is reported that nearly 50% of trucks in Australia are diesel engines, but such trucks need to add urea environmental protection agent, otherwise the cars will not be able to go on the road due to pollution.However, 80% of Australia's area is imported from China. Since China suspended the export of urea phosphate, Australia has been caught in the urea crisis. There is only one urea producer in the country, and one of those plants is about to close, leaving the Australian government in a panic over what to do.It is reported that Australia's urea inventory can only last for another month. If the urea import problem is not resolved during this period, the country's logistics industry will be hit hard.South Korea had a "urea shortage" as early as November, and the country's urea was mainly used for diesel trucks. Due to the shortage of urea, South Korea can only import from Malaysia at a high price of 6,300 yuan/ton.It is reported that more than 4 million trucks in South Korea need to add urea environmental protection agents, so the government of this country is also eager for China to export more urea, otherwise, the country's logistics system will be paralyzed. And 97.6% of South Korea's annual imports of urea come from China, but China restricted exports in October.The same is true of Japan. 97% of the country's industrial urea is imported from my country. However, due to my country's restrictions on export volume, the price of urea in Japan has risen nearly 10 times. The domestic urea producers in Japan suffer from a shortage of raw materials and their production scale has declined.It is reported that nearly 50% of Japan's urea raw materials have to be imported, while the international urea raw materials have risen sharply, and the difficulty of importing has put Japan's vehicle urea supply in short supply. If the problem of urea environmental protection agents cannot be solved, the country's transportation industry will also be hit hard.The same is true in the United States, where the price of urea has skyrocketed, and has now risen to $680/ton, up 168.2% from the same period last year. This has increased the cost of corn planting, from $85/acre in previous years to $165/acre.In addition, the price of phosphate fertilizer has also risen from US$450-500/ton to US$830-920/ton; anhydrous ammonia has risen to US$1,300/ton, up 18% from November and hitting a new high for many years.The same is true in Europe. Due to the crazy rise in natural gas, the production cost of chemical fertilizers has greatly increased, especially nitrogen fertilizers. Natural gas accounts for 75% of the raw materials. Therefore, nitrogen fertilizers have risen even more sharply, from 430 euros per ton to more than 1,000 euros per ton.2. Urea rises sharply, food safety is threatened by the sharp rise in raw materials, the global urea has risen by more than 200%, but this is not a good thing for food production. Farmers' enthusiasm for planting will be hit, and rising food will also drive food higher, increasing consumer spending pressure.StoneX Group Fertilizer Director Lin Weier said that at present, the urea inventory of enterprises has been sold, and the global urea crisis will be more intense after New Year's Day, and the price of urea in the first quarter will continue to rise.Cruz, head of the German Farmers Association, said that due to the rise in fertilizer prices, it is predicted that farmers will reduce the use of fertilizers in the new year, and it is predicted that the output of agricultural products will also decrease, which is not conducive to food safety.Brazil, as the largest soybean planter and the third largest corn producer, is expected to have a tight supply of chemical fertilizers in the new year, and the scale of corn, soybean, and cotton planting may be difficult to grow, which is also detrimental to global food security. In Southeast Asian countries, the supply of chemical fertilizers is in short supply, and it is predicted that the output or quality of fruits and vegetables will also decline in 2022.In response to the rise in fertilizers, India and Egypt have increased fertilizer subsidies, and India also plans to increase fertilizer subsidies in 2022 to $20.64 billion, twice as much as the previous year.3. How will China's urea be in the coming year?Compared with the global urea surge, my country's urea has dropped from 3,400 yuan per ton to 2,400 yuan per ton, and the current urea price is generally stable. The main reason for the decline of urea is that the export of urea has been officially restricted since October. In addition, my country has also issued several policies to ensure the stable output of coal production, ensure the stable supply of fertilizer enterprises' production capacity, and avoid production capacity caused by "environmental protection". reduce.But even so, my country's urea exports from January to November are still 400,000 tons higher than the same period in 2020, with an export volume of 5.26 million tons. Therefore, it is nonsense to complain about the reduction of my country's urea exports in the world. It can only be said that their demand is too great.As for how urea will fluctuate in 2022, it is believed that under the control of various national policies, fertilizer companies will inevitably give priority to domestic use. Coupled with stable production capacity, the price of urea will continue to be stable in the new year, and the price will be stable at 2300 -2500 yuan per ton, what do you think?